Dempster-shafer theory based ship-ship collision probability modelling

Abstract

The methodology proposed in this paper considers the uncertainty present in modeling the probability of collision between ships on a route. The proposal allows representing and quantifying uncertainty, and ensures rigorous propagation of this uncertainty from the input variables to the output variable. This proposal complements the analysis of risk and helps the decision maker to know the degree of confidence associated with the results of the analysis. Pedersen’s model has been selected to estimate the probability of collision, using the information provided by the AIS, and Dempster-Shafer Theory has been selected for the treatment of uncertainty. This methodology has been applied to maritime traffic in the Canary Islands and has been validated using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The results are consistent with those obtained with the software IWRAP recommended by IALA.