Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/69255
Title: A probabilistic model for explaining the points achieved by a team in football competition: forecasting and regression with applications to the Spanish league
Authors: Gómez Déniz, Emilio 
Dávila Cárdenes, María Nancy 
Pérez Sánchez, José María 
UNESCO Clasification: 5302 Econometría
Keywords: Estadísticas deportivas
Distribución lineal
Fútbol
Liga española de fútbol
Issue Date: 2019
Project: Aportaciones A la Toma de Decisiones Bayesianas Óptimas: Aplicaciones Al Coste-Efectividad Con Datos Clínicos y Al Análisis de Riestos Con Datos Acturiales. 
Journal: SORT 
Abstract: In the last decades, a lot of research papers applying statistical methods for analysing sports data have been published. Football, also called soccer, is one of the most popular sports all over the world organised in national championships in a round robin format in which the team reaching the most points at the end of the tournament wins the competition. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable probability model for studying the points achieved by a team in a football match. For this purpose, we built a discrete probability distribution taking values, zero for losing, one for a draw and three for a victory. We test its performance using data from the Spanish Football League (First division) during the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, the model provides an attractive framework for predicting points and incorporating covariates in order to study the factors affecting the points achieved by the teams.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/69255
ISSN: 1696-2281
DOI: 10.2436/20.8080.02.81
Source: Sort-Statistics And Operations Research Transactions [ISSN 1696-2281],v. 43 (1), p. 95-112
URL: http://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=7013162
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