Reference points for getting a target in a soccer competition. A probabilistic model with applications to the Spanish and English Premier League

Abstract

We model the probabilities that a soccer team gets a target, for example, to play the Champions League, the UEFA Europa League or preserve the category. Taking into account the points won until de mth matchday of the competition, when the winter transfer window is closed. We give closed-form expressions for the probabilities of reaching the goals. We also introduce a risk measure which is going to give us the smallest initial points needed to ensure that the probability of getting the target is larger than a given level.