Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/44535
Title: Forecasting vs. observed outturn: studying choice in faster inter-island connections
Authors: Grisolía Santos, José María 
Ortúzar, Juan de Dios 
UNESCO Clasification: 531212 Transportes y comunicaciones
Keywords: Transportes interinsulares
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: 0965-8564
Journal: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 
Abstract: Passenger demand and, in particular, mode choice between the islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife has experienced important changes in the last decade. In 2005 the jetfoil, which had been the dominant mode for many years, was replaced by a slower but cheaper fast ferry service. This induced important changes in the market shares of all competing modes (airplane, slow ferry and another fast ferry with a shorter in-sea time, but needing a bus connection in land). We estimated several discrete choice models, with data collected two years before, with the aim to test their forecasting performance in relation with observed behaviour. Interestingly, we found that an easy to interpret multinomial logit model allowing for systematic taste variations performed best in forecasting. We also discuss some model assumptions related to forecasting that allow replicating the effects of introducing a new mode more accurately. We finally show how the model can be used to examine the social benefits of a related infrastructure improvement project in the island of Gran Canaria.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/44535
ISSN: 0965-8564
DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2009.12.005
Source: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice[ISSN 0965-8564],v. 44, p. 159-168
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