Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/44535
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorGrisolía Santos, José Maríaen_US
dc.contributor.authorOrtúzar, Juan de Diosen_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-22T00:24:20Z-
dc.date.available2018-11-22T00:24:20Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.issn0965-8564en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10553/44535-
dc.description.abstractPassenger demand and, in particular, mode choice between the islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife has experienced important changes in the last decade. In 2005 the jetfoil, which had been the dominant mode for many years, was replaced by a slower but cheaper fast ferry service. This induced important changes in the market shares of all competing modes (airplane, slow ferry and another fast ferry with a shorter in-sea time, but needing a bus connection in land). We estimated several discrete choice models, with data collected two years before, with the aim to test their forecasting performance in relation with observed behaviour. Interestingly, we found that an easy to interpret multinomial logit model allowing for systematic taste variations performed best in forecasting. We also discuss some model assumptions related to forecasting that allow replicating the effects of introducing a new mode more accurately. We finally show how the model can be used to examine the social benefits of a related infrastructure improvement project in the island of Gran Canaria.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.publisher0965-8564
dc.relation.ispartofTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practiceen_US
dc.sourceTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice[ISSN 0965-8564],v. 44, p. 159-168en_US
dc.subject531212 Transportes y comunicacionesen_US
dc.subject.otherTransportes interinsularesen_US
dc.titleForecasting vs. observed outturn: studying choice in faster inter-island connectionsen_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/Articleen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.tra.2009.12.005
dc.identifier.scopus76549099568-
dc.identifier.isi000275992800004
dc.contributor.authorscopusid35306738400-
dc.contributor.authorscopusid6603795051-
dc.description.lastpage168-
dc.description.firstpage159-
dc.relation.volume44-
dc.investigacionCiencias Sociales y Jurídicasen_US
dc.type2Artículoen_US
dc.contributor.daisngid2905766
dc.contributor.daisngid198995
dc.utils.revisionen_US
dc.contributor.wosstandardWOS:Grisolia, JM
dc.contributor.wosstandardWOS:Ortuzar, JD
dc.date.coverdateMarzo 2010
dc.identifier.ulpgces
dc.description.jcr1,601
dc.description.jcrqQ1
dc.description.scieSCIE
dc.description.ssciSSCI
item.grantfulltextnone-
item.fulltextSin texto completo-
crisitem.author.deptGIR Economía, Comercio y Transporte Marítimo-
crisitem.author.deptDepartamento de Análisis Económico Aplicado-
crisitem.author.deptGIR TIDES: Investigación en Turismo y Transporte-
crisitem.author.deptIU de Turismo y Desarrollo Económico Sostenible-
crisitem.author.deptDepartamento de Análisis Económico Aplicado-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-7147-8851-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-4138-5846-
crisitem.author.parentorgDepartamento de Análisis Económico Aplicado-
crisitem.author.parentorgIU de Turismo y Desarrollo Económico Sostenible-
crisitem.author.fullNameGrisolía Santos, José María-
crisitem.author.fullNameEspino Espino, Raquel-
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