Predicción de la demanda de la energía eléctrica a largo plazo : un reto en ingeniería computacional

Abstract

Long terms predictions of electrical energy demand (EED) are important for both electric utilities and enterprise of resource management and land planning. The repercussion and need to have adequate EED predictions is highlighted. New scenes imply greater efforts, both considering new variables, and using efficient methods of computational engineering.

Both private companies and public administrations require long-term forecasts of electrical energy demand (EED). Among electric utilities are the carrier and manager of the electrical system, the generation and distribution utilities, and the trading companies; also the fuel supply companies to the generation power plants, and the public administrations responsible for the resource management and land planning, which are in charge of reserving land for placing infrastructures that ensure energy supply to the different activities developed in it. The authors have participated in the Special Territorial Plans of Energy Infrastructure Planning of various islands in the Canary Islands [1-3]. It should be noted that, if the predictions are very low, deficiencies could occur in the power supply, causing inconveniences to different economic sectors, but if they are very high, it could carry a high and unproductive economic investment.