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Title: Searching for informed traders in stock markets: The case of Banco Popular
Authors: Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V. 
Sosvilla Rivero,Simón Javier 
Andrada Félix, Julián 
Gómez-Déniz, Emilio 
Keywords: Asymmetric Information
Bank Failure
High-Frequency Data
Probability Of Informed Trading
Probability Of Symmetric Order-Flow Shocks
Issue Date: 2022
Journal: North American Journal of Economics and Finance 
Abstract: In this paper, we use several indicators of trade informativeness to search for informed traders on the final trading days of Banco Popular, the first and only bank resolution case to date in the euro area. In particular, we use the model proposed by Preve and Tse (2013) to estimate the adjusted daily probability of informed trading and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results indicate that upon the anticipation of a possible liquidation of the bank, informed investors reacted to the bad news by placing more weight on it and that Banco Popular experienced large increases in both buy- and sell-orders during the last days of trading when the bank registered a significant depletion of its deposit base. Moreover, we find evidence supporting the presence of inside trading and illiquidity, especially after speculation in the media that the bank could face a liquidation. Our study has important implications for market participants and regulatory authorities.
ISSN: 1062-9408
DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101791
Source: North American Journal of Economics and Finance [ISSN 1062-9408], v. 63, 101791, (Noviembre 2022)
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