Towards a simulation model of competition between touristic destinations using dynamic systems tools

Abstract

We describe a model based on dynamic systems theory to analyse the behaviour and flows of travellers between tourist markets and competing destinations, including a qualitative application, distinguishing several situations (destinations in mild competition and destinations in strong competition), to the case study of Gran Canaria and Tenerife, two competing island destinations. Our proposal is based on the mathematical theory of complex dynamic systems. Tourism figures are updated monthly and accessible through the website of the Regional Government Statistics Institute (ISTAC) [12] or the managing body of Spanish public airports (AENA) [13]. Being destinations accessible almost exclusively by air, tourist figures are much more reliable, include less dubious data than that of destinations accessible by road, train or boat which need to complement the official figures with other estimates [14], making the theoretical models we present to describe more accurately their actual evolution.