A tourism growth model

Abstract

Two processes can be used to summarize the productive-mix of a tourism-led economy: the lack of a significant secondary sector and strong tertiarization. Both developments have had significant consequences for productivity gains that, as shown by empirical research, are key to understanding economic progress. In fact, this productivity has been predominantly concentrated in the industrial sector while services have relied more on factor accumulation. However, this varying economic pattern has permitted long-lasting economic growth in current tourism-led economies. This article develops a theoretical dynamic economic model (a dynamic CGE model) to explain the beginning, development and long-term growth consequences of tourism-led economies.