Potential demand for new high speed rail services in high dense air transport corridors

Abstract

Demand analysis is a key element in the evaluation of public policies. The ex ante evaluation of large scale projects involving for example new high speed rail (HSR) services requires the estimation of reliable choice models to predict ridership shares of the new alternatives and to identify the main sources for traffic diversion and traffic generation. This paper analyses and forecasts potential demand for HSR services in the high dense air transport route: the line Madrid-Barcelona. The model aims to explain changes in the demand for interurban rail and air transport as a result of substantial improvements in the level of service due to the introduction of the HSR. Results highlight that the expected volume of demand for the HSR in the corridor is not enough to guarantee a positive social benefit of this project.