A count data travel cost model of theatre demand using aggregate theatre booking data

Abstract

Theatres have a market bounded by the distance theatregoers are willing to travel to see shows and productions. This paper uses count data models (Poisson regression and negative binomial models) to investigate the determinants of attendance at a regional theatre in England. It uses booking data for 29 theatrical productions supplied by the theatre, and matches this, using postcodes, with census socio-economic information on household characteristics. Socio-economic and travel cost (distance) are used to explore theatregoers attendance, and also to estimate consumer surplus, and to assess whether consumer surplus on ticket sales exceeds the annual government subsidy to the theatre