Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/43909
Title: Is the North Atlantic oscillation just a pink noise?
Authors: Fernández, Isabel
Hernández Flores, Carmen N.
Pacheco Castelao, José Miguel 
UNESCO Clasification: 12 Matemáticas
250207 Climatología regional
Keywords: NOA
Issue Date: 2003
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 
Abstract: In this paper the authors address the problem of predictability for the NAO index series. The spectral analysis, completed with a bootstrap procedure, shows a rather featureless structure of the index. In other words, the actual time series could be a realisation of many different stochastic processes. An analysis of the Hurst exponent does suggest a slightly red noise as a model for the index, which is interpreted as the NAO being driven by meteorological noise. A nonlinear study of the series (embedding dimension, fractal correlation dimension and leading Lyapunov exponent) shows little predictive performance as well.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/43909
ISSN: 0378-4371
DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00056-6
Source: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications [ISSN 0378-4371], v. 323, p. 705-714
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