The potential impact of Brexit on Ireland's demand for shipping services to continental Europe

Abstract

Ireland, as an island nation, has historically relied on the UK landbridge to export and import its goods to and from Europe. This provides a fast, reliable and secure service along the UK landbridge route relative to the more economical and less frequent direct continental route. However, the relative competitiveness of maritime services along both routes may be significantly influenced by the UK exit from the European Union or Brexit. This paper aims to understand the potential impact of Brexit on maritime freight transport demand from Ireland to continental Europe for export trade shipments. Based on data collected from an efficient stated preference (SP) experiment, discrete choice models that allow for non-compensatory behaviour are estimated. Results from a range of likely variations in the level of service of the UK landbridge route following Brexit suggest that the probability of using the direct continental route is likely to increase by up to a 14% with respect to its current level.