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Title: A comparative study of logistic models using an asymmetric link: modelling the away victories in football
Authors: Pérez-Sánchez, José María 
Gómez-Déniz, Emilio 
Dávila-Cárdenes, Nancy 
UNESCO Clasification: 1206 Análisis numérico
1209 Estadística
Keywords: Asymmetric link
Bayesian estimation
Logistic regression
Models selection
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: 2073-8994
Project: Aportaciones A la Toma de Decisiones Bayesianas Óptimas: Aplicaciones Al Coste-Efectividad Con Datos Clínicos y Al Análisis de Riestos Con Datos Acturiales. 
Journal: Symmetry 
Abstract: The target of this paper is to study the relevant factors affecting the victories away from home of football teams in order to fit the probability of winning an away match. The paper addressed the following research issues: (a) Is the identification of the significant variables underlying the results plausible? (b) Can information of these factors increase the probability of winning away from home and assist coaches in their decisions? Empirically, it is shown that there are more home victories and draws than away victories in the professional football leagues in Europe and this fact has to be taken into account. Thus, the classical logistic and Bayesian regression models do not seem to be adequate in this case and an asymmetric logistic regression model is therefore considered. This paper analyses 380 games played in the First Division of the Spanish Football League during the 2013-2014 season. Asymmetric logistic regression from a Bayesian point of view is chosen as the best model. This model detects new relevant factors undetected by standard logistic regressions. In view of the paper's findings, various practical recommendations were made in order to improve decision-making in this field. The Asymmetric logit link is a helpful device that can assist coaches in their game strategies.
ISSN: 2073-8994
DOI: 10.3390/sym10060224
Source: Symmetry [ISSN 2073-8994], v. 10(6), 224
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