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Title: Wind ensamble forecasting using an adaptive mass-consistent model
Authors: Oliver, Albert 
Rodríguez, Eduardo 
Montero García, Gustavo 
Montenegro Armas, Rafael 
UNESCO Clasification: 2509 Metereología
250908 Micrometeorología
250909 Predicción numérica meteorológica
1206 Análisis numérico
1204 Geometría, et al
Keywords: Adaptive finite element method
Ensemble forecasting
Mass-consistent model
Issue Date: 2014
Abstract: Ensemble forecasting [1] is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in [2]. The wind _eld forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind pro_le using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie [3], a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms [4]. The mesh is generated using the meccano method [5] and adapted to the geometry. The main source of uncertainties in this model is the parameter estimation and the in- trinsic uncertainties of the Harmonie Model.
Source: Proceedings del 11th World Congress on Computational Mechanics (WCCM XI), 5th European Conference on Computational Mechanics (ECCM V) y 6th European Conference on Computational Fluid Dynamics (ECFD VI). -- Barcelona. --20-25 de julio de 2014
Rights: by-nc-nd
Appears in Collections:Actas de congresos
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