Riesgo asociado al incremento del nivel del mar en el municipio de Arucas (Islas Canarias, España)

Abstract

This study presents a spatio-temporal geographic analysis of flood risk along the coast of Arucas, Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain), based on projections from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The research is motivated by the presence of buildings outside the legal framework of the Coastal Law, which are located within servitude areas and public maritime-terrestrial domains. This phenomenon suggests an elevated degree of vulnerability. A specific assessment of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability identifies key risk factors affecting these structures. Using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from AR5, ranging from the RCP4.5 to the RCP8.5, flood projections are developed for 2050 and 2100. Results include total flood risk mapping, highlighting critical coastal zones in Arucas, reflecting the cumulative impact of sea level rise and storm conditions. This tool is vital for future urban planning and siting climate-resilient municipal infrastructure. The study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation measures, as some buildings are already experiencing flooding during extreme weather events, with impacts worsening under future sea le