Wildfire Dynamics and Risk in the Wildland–Urban Interface in Gran Canaria (Spain): Influence of Climate Change, Land Management, and Civil Protection Policies

Abstract

The island of Gran Canaria (Spain) has undergone a significant transformation in wildfire dynamics over the past two decades, characterized by a decline in wildfire frequency but a marked increase in the severity and spatial impact of extreme events, particularly within the wildland–urban interface (WUI). This study analyzes wildfire activity between 2000 and 2020 using official datasets and statistical trend analyses, incorporating robust severity indicators and measures of burned area concentration. Results show a statistically significant decreasing trend in the number of wildfires, while burned area is extremely concentrated in a small number of high-intensity events, with four large wildfires accounting for more than 97%ofthetotal affected area. Climatic influences on wildfire activity were assessed through the analysis of long-term meteorological indicators, focusing on trends in extreme heat days and precipitation as proxies for thermal stress and fuel moisture availability. The results indicate a substantial modification of the background climatic framework under which wildfires develop, although no direct causal relationships are inferred. In parallel, territorial processes—such as rural abandonment, increased fuel continuity, and the expansion of dispersed housing beyond consolidated settlements—act as key amplifiers of wildfire risk. Overall, the findings highlight a transition from emergency-oriented fire suppression toward resilience-based wildfire management, emphasizing the need to integrate climate adaptation, territorial planning, and stricter land-use regulation in WUI areas.