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http://hdl.handle.net/10553/124022
Title: | Adaptive nowcasting of arrivals during health crises | Authors: | Eugenio Martín, Juan Luis Cazorla Artiles, José Manuel Moreda, Adela Murguia, Juan M. |
UNESCO Clasification: | 531290 Economía sectorial: turismo | Keywords: | Arrivals Covid-19 Crisis Forecasting Nowcasting, et al |
Issue Date: | 2023 | Journal: | Annals of Tourism Research | Abstract: | This paper develops a new methodology to nowcast the number of arrivals during health-related crises such as Covid-19. The methodology is adaptive, so that the relevance of different determinants varies over time by employing hurdles that work as ‘necessary travelling conditions’. It starts with a baseline series built upon a pre-Covid-19 trend. This series is adjusted by each hurdle. The first hurdle is the market closure; epidemiological models are applied to anticipate the dates of re-opening. The second hurdle deals with key travelling determinants such as the income effect. The third hurdle is the lack of confidence; this depends on the length of the recovery, and the expected path to follow. | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10553/124022 | ISSN: | 0160-7383 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.annals.2023.103609 | Source: | Annals of Tourism Research[ISSN 0160-7383],v. 101, (Julio 2023) |
Appears in Collections: | Artículos |
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