Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/121374
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dc.contributor.authorGómez Déniz, Emilioen_US
dc.contributor.authorPérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSosvilla Rivero,Simón Javieren_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-20T11:02:14Z-
dc.date.available2023-03-20T11:02:14Z-
dc.date.issued2022en_US
dc.identifier.issn2227-9091en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10553/121374-
dc.description.abstractFaced with the need to adjust public pension systems to meet changing demographic, economic and social conditions, most developed countries have created government reserve funds to ensure macroeconomic sustainability. This paper aims to study the importance that this reserve fund plays in the sustainability of the Spanish public pension system. Using data for the 2000 to 2019 period (20 observations) on the main variables impacting on the system, we calculate probabilities and other indicators of its unsustainability in relation to the reserve fund. Our model accurately reflects certain aspects of the data, and suggests that the probability of unsustainability is inversely associated with the size of the reserve fund, but that this relation is moderated by the heterogeneity of the members of the pension system. Moreover, the probability of unsustainability increases in line with the pension system deficit, the time elapsed until unsustainability is reached is shorter when the Reserve Fund balance falls, and the size of this fund at which the system becomes unsustainable diminishes with the probability of unsustainability.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relationNuevos Desarrollos en Métodos Cuantitativos Bayesianos. Aplicaciónes en Evaluación Económica de Tratamientos Mediante Meta-Análisisy Medición de Riesgos Con Datos Actuarialesen_US
dc.relation.ispartofRisksen_US
dc.sourceRisks [ISSN 2227-9091], v. 10 (6), 120, (Junio 2022)en_US
dc.subject.otherSocial securityen_US
dc.subject.otherPublic pensionsen_US
dc.subject.otherPublic pension reserve fundsen_US
dc.subject.otherSustainabilityen_US
dc.subject.otherStatistical approachen_US
dc.subject.otherCompound poisson distributionen_US
dc.titleAnalyzing How the Social Security Reserve Fund in Spain Affects the Sustainability of the Pension Systemen_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/risks10060120en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85132155920-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000816545100001-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.identifier.issue6-
dc.relation.volume10en_US
dc.investigacionCiencias Sociales y Jurídicasen_US
dc.type2Artículoen_US
dc.description.notasThis article belongs to the Special Issue Longevity Risk Modelling and Managementen_US
dc.utils.revisionen_US
dc.identifier.ulpgcen_US
dc.contributor.buulpgcBU-ECOen_US
dc.description.sjr0,439
dc.description.sjrqQ2
dc.description.esciESCI
dc.description.miaricds9,4
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.fulltextCon texto completo-
crisitem.author.deptGIR TIDES- Técnicas estadísticas bayesianas y de decisión en la economía y empresa-
crisitem.author.deptIU de Turismo y Desarrollo Económico Sostenible-
crisitem.author.deptDepartamento de Métodos Cuantitativos en Economía y Gestión-
crisitem.author.deptGIR Finanzas Cuantitativas y Computacionales-
crisitem.author.deptDepartamento de Métodos Cuantitativos en Economía y Gestión-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-5072-7908-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-6738-9191-
crisitem.author.parentorgIU de Turismo y Desarrollo Económico Sostenible-
crisitem.author.parentorgDepartamento de Métodos Cuantitativos en Economía y Gestión-
crisitem.author.fullNameGómez Déniz, Emilio-
crisitem.author.fullNamePérez Rodríguez, Jorge Vicente-
crisitem.author.fullNameSosvilla Rivero,Simón Javier-
crisitem.project.principalinvestigatorVázquez Polo, Francisco José-
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