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Title: Forecasting Hotel-booking Cancelations Using Personal Name Records: An Artificial Intelligence Approach
Authors: Caballero Sánchez, Eleazar 
Sánchez-Medina, Agustín J. 
Romero Domínguez, Laura 
UNESCO Clasification: Investigación
Keywords: Forecasting Model
Genetic Algorithm
Hotel-Booking Cancelation
Machine Learning
Personal Name Records, et al
Issue Date: 2022
Publisher: Springer 
Journal: Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 
Conference: International Conference on Marketing and Technologies (ICMarkTech 2021) 
Abstract: Booking cancelation has a significant impact on hotel management and on the hospitality industry in general. According to some authors, an important portion of hotel revenue loss stems from not considering cancelations in booking systems. Besides, very little is still known about the reasons why customers cancel their bookings, or how this can be effectively avoided from happening. Keeping this in mind, personal name record (PNR) data, which were collected by a hotel partner, were used to design a model to forecast hotel-booking cancelations, which achieved 74% of accuracy. The benefits of the proposed method go beyond such good rate of detection: It only considers 13 different, independent variables, which is a reduced number compared to previous works in the field. Moreover, the included variables coincide with those requested from customers during the hotel reservation process. This is an advantage for hospitality establishments, given that these variables are often the only ones available. Our method allows knowing the cancelation rate with good accuracy, but it can also identify those customers who are likely to cancel their bookings. This approach could be an asset for organizations, as it assists them in improving their action protocols regarding incoming tourists.
ISBN: 978-981-16-9267-3
ISSN: 2190-3018
DOI: 10.1007/978-981-16-9268-0_1
Source: Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies [ISSN 2190-3018], v. 279, p. 3-14, (Enero 2022)
Appears in Collections:Actas de congresos
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