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http://hdl.handle.net/10553/107385
Título: | Testing the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis in exchange rates under long-range dependence | Autores/as: | Pérez Rodríguez, Jorge Vicente Andrada Félix, Julián Rachinger, Heiko |
Clasificación UNESCO: | 530204 Estadística económica | Palabras clave: | Exchange Rates Forward Volatility Unbiasedness Hypothesis Fractional Cointegration |
Fecha de publicación: | 2021 | Proyectos: | El Comportamiento de Los Mercados Cambiarios: Nueva Información, Capacidad Predictiva y Regímenes Cambiarios. | Publicación seriada: | North American Journal of Economics and Finance | Resumen: | This paper analyses the unbiasedness hypothesis between spot and forward volatility, using both the actual and the continuous path of realised volatility, and focusing on long-memory properties. For this purpose, we use daily realised volatility with jumps for the USD/EUR exchange rate negotiated in the FX market and employ fractional integration and cointegration techniques. Both series have long-range dependence, and so does the error correction term of their long-run relationship. Hence, deviations from equilibrium are highly persistent, and the effects of shocks affecting the long-run relationship dissipate very slowly. While for long-term contracts, there is some empirical evidence that the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis does not hold – and, thus, that forward implied volatility is a systematically downward-biased predictor of future spot volatility – for short-term contracts, the evidence is mixed. | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10553/107385 | ISSN: | 1062-9408 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101438 | Fuente: | North American Journal of Economics and Finance [ISSN 1062-9408], v. 57, 101438, (Julio 2021) |
Colección: | Artículos |
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