Empirical evidence of the effects of COVID-19 on voter turnout

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of COVID-19 on voting turnout using as a case study an election that took place right after the peak of the first wave of the pandemic, the Basque Country regional elections. With the spread of COVID-19 there is a fear that in- person voting will spread the virus, which adds an additional burden to voters that is expected to decrease turnout. We confirm this hypothesis using a difference-indifference model. We find that COVID-19 caused turnout to decrease by approximately 4.7% in municipalities affected by the virus compared to those that at the time of the election had not been affected by it. This effect on turnout is higher for municipalities affected also by deaths from coronavirus than when affected only by infected cases.