Influence of the reliability of short-term electrical power forecasting for a wind farm on the generation cost per mwh. A case study in the Canary Islands

Abstract

All rights reserved. The generation cost of a wind farm has generally been studied on the basis of two factors: the initial investment cost and the operating and maintenance cost. The problems caused in an electrical system by deviations between the actual electrical power generated by a wind farm and the electrical power estimated by prediction models need to be corrected. These deviations result in an additional economic cost. This paper evaluates the deviation cost per unit of energy generated by wind farms and analyses the contribution of this cost to the total production cost. The study undertaken in this paper has been made specific to the Canary Islands (Spain). It can be deduced from the results of the study that the deviation cost can amount to between 1.5% and 15.5% of the cost of producing electrical energy generated by a wind farm depending, amongst other parameters, on the error made in the prediction. Wind farms that are otherwise deemed profitable may not be considered so if the deviation cost is taken into account.