On the dynamics of Sardina pilchardus: orbits of stability and environmental forcing

Abstract

The dynamics of Sardina pilchardus in Iberian upwelling are examined. Spawning-stock biomass (SSB), recruitment (R), and production (R/SSB) data for the years 1978–2006 are analysed in relation to the upwelling index (UPW) and sea surface temperature (SST). The population oscillates in two relatively stable orbits (identified by multiresolution decomposition of the recruitment series) because the external forcing (UPW and SST) are the inverse of each other and the synchrony is lost between the two external variables, R and R/SSB as they shift towards steep, negative (depensatory) trends. Such mechanics may have induced recruitment failures and significant decreases in abundance of Iberian sardine. The relationships are assumed to validate a complex and dynamic continuum (multiple orbits of stability) and an alternative variable-carrying-capacity population model. Radial systems with two orbits of stability are proposed for the R/SSB and S/SSB (where S is the stock size) relationships. Results are discussed in relation to classical and alternative SR models to address stock rehabilitation and fishing mortality issues as the population shifts towards low recruitment and abundance, and critical factors to consider in developing exploitation strategies for systems with multiple orbits of stability are discussed.