Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand

Abstract

This paper describes the relationship between regional climate in the home area and the choice of taking holidays in the region of origin or abroad. This decision is simultaneously estimated with a bivariate probit model. The study combines the socioeconomic characteristics of European households with information on the region of residence, such as climate, which is defined according to a new annualized climate index. The estimated probabilities are analysed using GIS and nonparametric techniques. The results of modelling support the hypothesis that the climate in the region of residence is a strong determinant of holiday destination choice. They show that residents in regions with better climate indices have a higher probability of travelling domestically and a lower probability of travelling abroad.