Sustainable District-Heating Transition in Poland: The Case of the City of Ustka

Abstract

The energy transition of district heating systems in Poland requires the simultaneous consideration of energy efficiency, operating costs, technical feasibility, and local environmental constraints. This study addresses an identified gap in the literature by combining real operational time series from a municipal district heating system with time-resolved market signals and site-specific resource constraints in a single OPEX-based operational screening framework. A case study is conducted for the city of Ustka using a configuration-based comparison of hybrid supply systems that include a gas-fired combined heat and power (CHP) unit, air-source and ground-source heat pumps, thermal energy storage, and a peak-load boiler. The optimisation model was implemented in MS Excel using the GRG Nonlinear algorithm (Solver) and was driven by the district heating operational data for 2021–2022 together with electricity and natural gas prices from the Polish Power Exchange day-ahead market (TGE RDN), evaluated under both hourly and daily settlement assumptions. The results indicate an optimal capacity split of 1.2 MWel/1.3 MWth for the CHP unit and 1.5 MWel/3.0 MWth for the heat pump system, supported by a required peak boiler capacity of 8.23 MWth. Within the adopted OPEX-based assessment, the lowest value of the unit heat generation indicator was obtained for the CHP-led configuration with combined ground-source and air-source heat pumps (38.45–38.55 PLN/GJ). A distinctive element of the study is the explicit verification of whether an operationally favourable configuration remains practically feasible when local resource constraints are considered. The site assessment indicates limited practical feasibility of the borehole heat exchanger at the analysed location in Ustka, showing that the lowest OPEX result should not be interpreted as a final investment recommendation. The study provides a replicable approach for the Polish district heating operators to screen hybrid transition pathways under real market conditions and to avoid technology choices that are favourable in dispatch models but constrained in practice. From a sustainability perspective, the proposed framework supports more energy-efficient, resilient, and locally feasible district heating transition planning in municipal heat systems.