Sociodemographic factors in the perception and understanding of weather warnings and the activation of emergency plans in the Canary Islands (Spain)

Abstract

The effectiveness of weather warning systems is directly related to citizens' understanding and response. This research analyses risk perception, level of understanding, and trust in weather warnings issued by Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and in the activation bulletins of civil protection emergency plans in the Canary Islands, through a structured survey of 902 respondents. Drawing on established research on warning effectiveness, the study examines whether increased awareness and understanding necessarily lead to appropriate protective behaviour. The analysis explores the role of sociodemographic factors, including age, gender, and educational level, in shaping risk perception and decision-making uncertainty. The results show that while 73.9% of respondents are familiar with AEMET warning levels, only 41.4% clearly distinguish them from civil protection activation bulletins, and 36.1% report uncertainty about what actions to take. Statistical analyses reveal that risk perception increases with age and educational level, while confusion is more prevalent among younger respondents and those with lower educational attainment. Latent class analysis identifies four distinct warning-perception profiles, including a large group of “informed but confused” individuals who possess technical knowledge of warnings but struggle to translate that knowledge into action. These findings support existing evidence that message comprehension alone does not guarantee behavioural response and highlight the persistence of a knowledge–action gap in public warning communication. The results underline the need to move from purely informative warnings towards clearer, action-oriented and institutionally coordinated messages that enhance public response during extreme weather events.