Analysis of Technological Readiness Indexes for Offshore Renewable Energies in Ibero-American Countries

Abstract

The energy transition in Ibero-American countries demands significant diversification, yet the vast potential of offshore renewable energies (ORE) remains largely untapped. Slow adoption is often attributed to the hostile marine environment, high investment costs, and a lack of institutional, regulatory, and industrial readiness. A critical barrier for policymakers is the absence of methodologically robust tools to assess national preparedness. Existing indices typically rely on simplistic weighting schemes or are susceptible to known flaws, such as the rank reversal phenomenon, which undermines their credibility for strategic decision-making. This study addresses this gap by developing a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework based on a problem-specific synthesis of established optimization principles to construct a comprehensive Offshore Readiness Index (ORI) for 13 Ibero-American countries. The framework moves beyond traditional methods by employing an advanced weight-elicitation model rooted in the Robust Ordinal Regression (ROR) paradigm to analyze 42 sub-criteria across five domains: Regulation, Planning, Resource, Industry, and Grid. Its methodological core is a non-linear objective function that synergistically combines a Shannon entropy term to promote a maximally unbiased weight distribution and to prevent criterion exclusion, with an epistemic regularization penalty that anchors the solution to expert-derived priorities within each domain. The model is guided by high-level hierarchical constraints that reflect overarching policy assumptions, such as the primacy of Regulation and Planning, thereby ensuring strategic alignment. The resulting ORI ranks Spain first, followed by Mexico and Costa Rica. Spain’s leadership is underpinned by its exceptional performance in key domains, supported by specific enablers, such as a dedicated renewable energy roadmap. The optimized block weights validate the model’s structure, with Regulation (0.272) and Electric Grid (0.272) receiving the highest importance. In contrast, lower-ranked countries exhibit systemic deficiencies across multiple domains. This research offers a dual contribution: methodological innovation in readiness assessment and an actionable tool for policy instruments. The primary policy conclusion is clear: robust regulatory frameworks and strategic planning are the pivotal enabling conditions for ORE development, while industrial capacity and infrastructure are consequent steps that must follow, not precede, a solid policy foundation.