Revisiting the export-led growth hypothesis for OECD countries. A fractionally integrated heterogeneous panel data framework

Abstract

The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) has been extensively explored; however, previous studies have predominantly relied on standard integration and cointegration techniques, and empirical evidence supporting the ELGH remains inconclusive. This research re-examined the ELGH for developed economies using advanced fractional methods. By analyzing quarterly data on GDP, real effective exchange rates, and goods exports for 27 OECD countries from 1995 to 2021, our study showed that conventional cointegration methods may overlook significant long-run relationships. In contrast, the fractional approach offers a more flexible and accurate estimation of the trade-growth nexus. These findings underscore the importance of refined econometric methods in international trade research, particularly for evaluating the long-term effects of exports on economic performance.