Geographic and biological drivers shape anthropogenic extinctions in the Macaronesian vascular flora

Abstract

Whether species extinctions have accelerated during the Anthropocene and the extent to which certain species are more susceptible to extinction due to their ecological preferences and intrinsic biological traits are among the most pressing questions in conservation biology. Assessing extinction rates is, however, challenging, as best exemplified by the phenomenon of 'dark extinctions': the loss of species that disappear before they are even formally described. These issues are particularly problematic in oceanic islands, where species exhibit high rates of endemism and unique biological traits but are also among the most vulnerable to extinction. Here, we document plant species extinctions since Linnaeus' Species Plantarum in Macaronesia, a biogeographic region comprised of five hyperdiverse oceanic archipelagos, and identify the key drivers behind these extinctions. We compiled 168 records covering 126 taxa, identifying 13 global and 155 local extinction events. Significantly higher extinction rates were observed compared to the expected global background rate. We uncovered differentiated extinction patterns along altitudinal gradients, highlighting a recent coastal hotspot linked to socioeconomic changes in Macaronesian archipelagos from the 1960s onwards. Key factors influencing extinction patterns include island age, elevation, introduced herbivorous mammals, and human population size. Trait-based analyses across the floras of the Azores and Canary Islands revealed that endemicity, pollination by vertebrates, nitrogen-fixing capacity, woodiness, and zoochory consistently tended to increase extinction risk. Our findings emphasize the critical role of geography and biological traits, alongside anthropogenic impacts, in shaping extinction dynamics on oceanic islands. Enhancing our knowledge of life-history traits within island floras is crucial for accurately predicting and mitigating future extinction risks, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive biodiversity assessments in island ecosystems.