Identificador persistente para citar o vincular este elemento: https://accedacris.ulpgc.es/handle/10553/135609
Campo DC Valoridioma
dc.contributor.authorKwiatkowski, Lesteren_US
dc.contributor.authorTorres, Olivieren_US
dc.contributor.authorBopp, Laurenten_US
dc.contributor.authorAumont, Olivieren_US
dc.contributor.authorChamberlain, Matthewen_US
dc.contributor.authorChristian, James R.en_US
dc.contributor.authorDunne, John P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGehlen, Marionen_US
dc.contributor.authorIlyina, Tatianaen_US
dc.contributor.authorJohn, Jasmin G.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLenton, Andrewen_US
dc.contributor.authorLi, Hongmeien_US
dc.contributor.authorLovenduski, Nicole S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOrr, James C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPalmieri, Julienen_US
dc.contributor.authorSantana Falcon, Yerayen_US
dc.contributor.authorSchwinger, Jörgen_US
dc.contributor.authorSéférian, Rolanden_US
dc.contributor.authorStock, Charles A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorTagliabue, Alessandroen_US
dc.contributor.authorTakano, Yoheien_US
dc.contributor.authorTjiputra, Jerryen_US
dc.contributor.authorToyama, Katsuyaen_US
dc.contributor.authorTsujino, Hiroyukien_US
dc.contributor.authorWatanabe, Michioen_US
dc.contributor.authorYamamoto, Akitomoen_US
dc.contributor.authorYool, Andrewen_US
dc.contributor.authorZiehn, Tiloen_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-24T19:35:30Z-
dc.date.available2025-01-24T19:35:30Z-
dc.date.issued2020en_US
dc.identifier.issn1726-4170en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://accedacris.ulpgc.es/handle/10553/135609-
dc.description.abstractAnthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080 2099 mean values relative to 1870 1899) the intermodel SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100 600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0 100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 °C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m-3 and -2.99±9.11 % respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 °C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m-3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.relationTropical and South Atlantic - climate-based marine ecosystem prediction for sustainable managementen_US
dc.relationHorizon 2020 (CRESCENDO – 641816)en_US
dc.relationHorizon 2020 (COMFORT – 820989)en_US
dc.relation.ispartofBiogeosciencesen_US
dc.sourceBiogeosciences [ISSN 1726-4170], v. 17, n. 13, p. 3439–3470, (Julio 2020)en_US
dc.subject2510 Oceanografíaen_US
dc.subject241705 Biología marinaen_US
dc.subject.otherAnthropogenic climate changeen_US
dc.subject.otherMarine ecosystemsen_US
dc.subject.otherEuphotic-zoneen_US
dc.subject.otherNitrate reductionsen_US
dc.subject.otherOcean impact driversen_US
dc.subject.otherBenthic ecosystemsen_US
dc.titleTwenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projectionsen_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85088494350-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.contributor.orcid#NODATA#-
dc.description.lastpage3470en_US
dc.identifier.issue13-
dc.description.firstpage3439en_US
dc.relation.volume17en_US
dc.investigacionCienciasen_US
dc.type2Artículoen_US
dc.description.numberofpages32en_US
dc.utils.revisionen_US
dc.date.coverdateJulio 2020en_US
dc.identifier.ulpgcNoen_US
dc.contributor.buulpgcBU-BASen_US
dc.description.sjr1,744
dc.description.jcr4,295
dc.description.sjrqQ1
dc.description.jcrqQ1
dc.description.scieSCIE
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.fulltextCon texto completo-
crisitem.author.deptDepartamento de Biología-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-2627-1947-
crisitem.author.fullNameSantana Falcon, Yeray-
crisitem.project.principalinvestigatorHernández León, Santiago Manuel-
Colección:Artículos
Adobe PDF (11,53 MB)
Vista resumida

Citas SCOPUSTM   

518
actualizado el 25-may-2025

Citas de WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations

499
actualizado el 25-may-2025

Google ScholarTM

Verifica

Altmetric


Comparte



Exporta metadatos



Los elementos en ULPGC accedaCRIS están protegidos por derechos de autor con todos los derechos reservados, a menos que se indique lo contrario.