Análisis y predicción de las capturas de salmonete de roca Mullus surmuletus (Linnaeus, 1758) en aguas de Gran Canaria (islas Canarias) mediante un modelo ARIMA

Abstract

The utility of AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for analysing and forecasting catches of red mullet Mullus surmuletus (Linnaeus, 1758) off Gran Canaria (Canary Islands) was tested. A 13-year monthly record (January 1981-December 1993) of total red mullet catches from the southwestern end of the island was analysed. The model is capable of describing and forecasting the landings (U-Theil < 1) up to 24 months in advance. The catches show a trend and seasonality. The seasonality is due to the biological behaviour of the species and to deviation of the fishing effort from the demersal fishery to the tuna fishery.