Recent precipitation trends in Peninsular Spain and implications for water infrastructure design

Abstract

There is strong evidence that climate change has produced a decrease in precipitation combined with an increased frequency, intensity and magnitude of high-intensity storm events in Peninsular Spain. Such events have been particularly recurrent on the Spanish Mediterranean coast in recent years. This study's first objective is to update the trends in the magnitude and seasonality of precipitation in Spain from 1951 to 2019 at different time scales. Secondly, we analyse how extreme precipitation events recorded in recent years can modify water infrastructure design flows. A QGIS plugin was programmed using Python to calculate the design flows in accordance with the methodologies legally established in Spain. New hydrological insights for the region: The results confirm the decreasing trend in annual precipitation in most of the Spanish territory. This decrease was particularly significant during March and June. Moreover, the average increases of around 30–40 % in design flows, which reached double the values obtained in the reference period of 1951–1990 in some basins, confirm the relevance of incorporating high-intensity storm events recorded in recent years into flow calculations in Peninsular Spain. Design flows obtained without using the most recent rainfall data can be underestimated, with profound risk implications. Therefore, there is a sufficient technical basis to draw attention to this problem and recommend its formal consideration by competent authorities.