A predictive solar radiation and PV power generation model: improving management of power grid and solar farms

Abstract

A predictive solar radiation numerical model for the estimation of the photovoltaic power generation in the medium term is presented. This tool allows the user to predict the solar radiation as well as the photovoltaic power generation, with a given probability. The work has been applied in Gran Canaria (Canary Islands – Spain), but the model is useful for any place on earth. The terrain surface is taken into account, using 2-D adaptive meshes of triangles, which are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo. The chosen methodology defines the terrain characteristics with a minimum number of points, so that computational cost is reduced for a given accuracy. The effect of shadows is considered in each time step. The solar radiation is first computed for clear-sky conditions, considering the different components of radiation: beam, diffuse and reflected radiations. The predicted real-sky radiation is computed daily starting from the results of clear-sky radiation, in terms of the clear-sky index, which will be computed using a forecasting meteorological model as MM5, HIRLAM, etc.