Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/112604
Title: Comparative analysis of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state.
Authors: Álvarez León, Luis Miguel 
UNESCO Clasification: 120320 Sistemas de control médico
120803 Aplicación de la probabilidad
240401 Bioestadística
241210 Vacunas
242008 Virus respiratorios, et al
Issue Date: 2020
Abstract: We use an exponential growth model to analyze the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state. This model uses the number of officially reported patients tested positive and deaths to estimate an infected hindcast of the cumulative number of patients who later tested positive or who later die. For each region, an epidemic timeline is established, obtaining a precise knowledge of the chronology of the main epidemiological events during the full course of the first wave. It includes, in particular, the time that the virus has been in free circulation before the impact of the social distancing measures were observable. The results of the study suggest that among the analyzed regions, only South Korea and Germany possessed, at the beginning of the epidemic, a testing capacity that allowed to correctly follow the evolution of the epidemic. Anticipation in taking measures in these two countries caused the virus to spend less time in free circulation than in the rest of the regions. The analysis of the growth rates in the different regions suggests that the exponential growth rate of the cumulative number of infected, when the virus is in free circulation, is around 0.250737. In addition, we also study the ability of the model to properly forecast the epidemic spread at the beginning of the epidemic outbreak when very little data and information about the coronavirus were available. In the case of France, we obtain a reasonable estimate of the peak of the new cases of patients tested positive 9 days in advance and only 7 days after the implementation of a strict lockdown.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/112604
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.20.20235689
Source: medRxiv, 23 de noviembre 2020
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