|Title:||Comparative analysis of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state.||Authors:||Álvarez León, Luis Miguel||UNESCO Clasification:||120320 Sistemas de control médico
120803 Aplicación de la probabilidad
242008 Virus respiratorios, et al
|Issue Date:||2020||Abstract:||We use an exponential growth model to analyze the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state. This model uses the number of officially reported patients tested positive and deaths to estimate an infected hindcast of the cumulative number of patients who later tested positive or who later die. For each region, an epidemic timeline is established, obtaining a precise knowledge of the chronology of the main epidemiological events during the full course of the first wave. It includes, in particular, the time that the virus has been in free circulation before the impact of the social distancing measures were observable. The results of the study suggest that among the analyzed regions, only South Korea and Germany possessed, at the beginning of the epidemic, a testing capacity that allowed to correctly follow the evolution of the epidemic. Anticipation in taking measures in these two countries caused the virus to spend less time in free circulation than in the rest of the regions. The analysis of the growth rates in the different regions suggests that the exponential growth rate of the cumulative number of infected, when the virus is in free circulation, is around 0.250737. In addition, we also study the ability of the model to properly forecast the epidemic spread at the beginning of the epidemic outbreak when very little data and information about the coronavirus were available. In the case of France, we obtain a reasonable estimate of the peak of the new cases of patients tested positive 9 days in advance and only 7 days after the implementation of a strict lockdown.||URI:||http://hdl.handle.net/10553/112604||DOI:||10.1101/2020.11.20.20235689||Source:||medRxiv, 23 de noviembre 2020|
|Appears in Collections:||Artículo preliminar|
checked on Nov 25, 2023
checked on Nov 25, 2023
Items in accedaCRIS are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.