From fire hazard to territorial risk: governance, climate change, and vulnerability in the wildland–urban interface of Gran Canaria

Abstract

Over the last two decades, the island of Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain) has experienced a significant transformation in its wildfire regime. This change is not reflected in an increase in the number of ignitions, but rather in a marked rise in the severity and territorial impact of extreme wildfire events, particularly within the wildland–urban interface (WUI). The aim of this study is to analyze the recent evolution of wildfire risk from a climatic, territorial, and institutional perspective, identifying the key drivers behind the growing vulnerability of both the territory and exposed populations. The study area is the island of Gran Canaria, an insular territory characterized by steep topography, high climatic variability, and strong territorial contrasts between densely populated coastal areas and a mountainous interior affected by rural abandonment. The expansion of dispersed housing into rural and forested land, together with vegetation regrowth and increased fuel continuity, has led to the widespread development of WUI areas, where wildfires acquire a clear socio-territorial dimension by directly affecting settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities. The methodology follows a mixed-methods approach combining statistical analysis of wildfire time series (2000–2020), including indicators of severity and burned area concentration, with the analysis of long-term climatic variables (1991–2020), particularly the number of extreme heat days (T ≥ 30 °C) and precipitation patterns. In addition, a territorial and documentary analysis was conducted to assess land-use change, WUI expansion, and the evolution of public policies related to wildfire prevention, spatial planning, and emergency management. The results reveal a statistically significant decrease in the number of wildfires, alongside an extreme concentration of burned area in a very limited number of large wildfire events, which account for nearly the entire spatial impact. Climatic analysis shows a sustained increase in extreme thermal conditions, extending the temporal window of wildfire risk, while territorial processes act as key amplifiers of hazard and exposure. Overall, the findings point to a transition from a reactive, suppression-focused model toward a resilience-oriented risk governance approach, highlighting the need to integrate climate adaptation, territorial planning, and civil protection policies in insular and Mediterranean regions increasingly exposed to extreme events.