Changes in Russian air connectivity in response to airspace restrictions

Abstract

This paper examines the adaptation of Russia's international air transport network during the first year following its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Using data from the Official Airline Guide (OAG), the article explores the response of the Russian international air transport network to airspace restrictions imposed on Russian airlines. Despite an initial 41% decline in international capacity, Russia's air connectivity rebounded to near pre-invasion levels by January 2023, with only a 4% overall decrease, suggesting that sanctions were largely ineffective. The geographical reconfiguration was substantial, with country connections, primarily European, dropping from 64 to 34. Simultaneously, Türkiye and the UAE emerged as the top two international markets for Russia, with Istanbul (IST) and Dubai (DBX) airports benefiting strategically. Former Soviet republics in Central Asia, especially Armenia, experienced air seat capacity growth. Within Russia, Moscow's airports remained the main international gateways, while Sochi airport (AER) emerged as a new entry point. Aeroflot maintained its position as the leading international Russian airline, despite capacity reduction, while other Russian airlines showed significant growth. This research contributes to understanding how geopolitical events can reshape international air transport networks, providing empirical evidence of the Russian air transport sector's resilience and adaptability in the face of significant international sanctions.