Microgrid design optimization in Benin within the LEOPARD project: evaluating the impact of inaccurate load profile estimation

Abstract

The study aims to answer three specific questions: how the optimal microgrid design is affected by the renewable production constraint, how the microgrid design affects the performance and economic feasibility of a microgrid, and how errors in load profile estimation impact engineering and costs. The work was conducted within the LEOPARD project on the microgrid demonstrator located at the agro-ecological Centre Songhaï in Benin, Africa. Optimal designs were proposed for four different percentages of maximum electricity production accepted from the diesel engine based on a reference load profile. The paper shows that the renewable production constraint is crucial in assessing the optimal microgrid design. The study examines two hypotheses: an underestimated load profile and an overestimated load profile. It is presented that underestimation or overestimation of the load profile results in significant annual energy loss, with underestimation causing an increase in diesel engine production and overestimation causing a decrease. The paper also highlights that an optimized design integrated into a microgrid that needs to serve a load profile beyond the predicted values may exceed the limits of diesel engine production and increase the levelized cost of electricity.