Mapping Spanish political landscape on migration: a sentiment and topic analysis of manifestos ahead of the 2024 EU election

Abstract

This study examines the electoral programmes of Spain’s four main national parties (PSOE, PP, VOX, and SUMAR) and Von der Leyen’s discourse after being re-elected as President of the European Commission regarding immigration, asylum seekers, and refugees. The key themes and disparities in the political discourses are found through text analysis, specifically tri-gram word clouds and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Our findings reveal stark contrasts between the leftist SUMAR and the rightist VOX. SUMAR emphasises immigrants’ and human rights, while VOX focuses on the perceived failures of the EU’s immigration policy and human trafficking. The LDA analysis identifies 15 main topics with varying degrees of association for each party. Von der Leyen’s discourse aligns more closely with border control and security topics, advocating for a unified international approach. Correlation analysis further highlights the divergence between SUMAR and VOX discourses. In contrast, PSOE and PP exhibit a higher correlation, as do their positions with Von der Leyen’s discourse. These results underscore the distinct perspectives and approaches of the Spanish parties on immigration, revealing a complex political landscape shaped by ideological differences and external influences.