Identificador persistente para citar o vincular este elemento: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/112615
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dc.contributor.authorÁlvarez León, Luis Miguelen_US
dc.contributor.authorColom, Miguelen_US
dc.contributor.authorMorel, Jean-Michelen_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-10T18:18:54Z-
dc.date.available2021-11-10T18:18:54Z-
dc.date.issued2020en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10553/112615-
dc.description.abstractThe way each country counts and reports the incident cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections is strongly affected by the “weekend effect”. During the weekend, fewer tests are carried out and there is a delay in the registration of cases. This introduces an “administrative noise” that can strongly disturb the calculation of trend estimators such as the effective reproduction number R(t). In this work we propose a procedure to correct the incidence curve and obtain a better fit between the number of infected and the one expected using the renewal equation. The classic way to deal with the administrative noise is to invoke its weekly period and therefore to filter the incidence curve by a seven days sliding mean. Yet this has three drawbacks: the first one is a loss of resolution. The second one is that a 7-day mean filter hinders the estimate of the effective reproduction number R(t) in the last three days before present. The third drawback of a mean filter is that it implicitly assumes the administrative noise to be additive and time invariant. The present study supports the idea that the administrative is better dealt with as being both periodic and multiplicative. The simple method that derives from these assumptions amount to multiplying the number of infected by a correcting factor which depends on the day of the week. This correcting factor is estimated from the incidence curve itself. The validity of the method is demonstrated by its positive impact on the accuracy of an the estimates of R(t). To exemplify the advantages of the multiplicative periodic correction, we apply it to Sweden, Germany, France and Spain. We observe that the estimated administrative noise is country dependent, and that the proposed strategy manages to reduce it noise considerably. An implementation of this technique is available at www.ipol.im/ern, where it can be tested on the daily incidence curves of an extensive list of states and geographic areas provided by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.en_US
dc.languageengen_US
dc.sourceMedRxiv, 18 de noviembre 2020en_US
dc.subject3202 Epidemologiaen_US
dc.subject12 Matemáticasen_US
dc.subject.otherCOVID-19en_US
dc.subject.otherEffective reproduction numberen_US
dc.subject.otherReproduction rateen_US
dc.subject.otherR0en_US
dc.subject.otherRten_US
dc.subject.otherSARS-CoV-2en_US
dc.subject.otherSerial intervalen_US
dc.subject.otherWeekly administrative noiseen_US
dc.titleRemoving weekly administrative noise in the daily count of COVID-19 new cases: application to the computation of Rten_US
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperen_US
dc.typeworkingpaperen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1101/2020.11.16.20232405en_US
dc.investigacionIngeniería y Arquitecturaen_US
dc.type2Artículo preliminaren_US
dc.description.numberofpages15en_US
dc.utils.revisionen_US
dc.identifier.ulpgcen_US
dc.identifier.ulpgcen_US
dc.identifier.ulpgcen_US
dc.identifier.ulpgcen_US
dc.contributor.buulpgcBU-INFen_US
item.fulltextCon texto completo-
item.grantfulltextopen-
crisitem.author.deptGIR Modelos Matemáticos-
crisitem.author.deptDepartamento de Informática y Sistemas-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-6953-9587-
crisitem.author.parentorgDepartamento de Informática y Sistemas-
crisitem.author.fullNameÁlvarez León, Luis Miguel-
Colección:Artículo preliminar
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